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ENBRIDGE INC (ENB)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered record third‑quarter Adjusted EBITDA of C$4.27B (+1.6% y/y) with DCF at C$2.57B (flat y/y), while Adjusted EPS declined to C$0.46 (from C$0.55) on higher interest and D&A; 2025 guidance reaffirmed: Adjusted EBITDA C$19.4–20.0B and DCF/share C$5.50–5.90 .
  • Operations were strong: Mainline volumes averaged ~3.1 mmbpd (Q3 record), though Gulf Coast/Mid‑Con liquids contributions were soft on tighter diffs and strong PADD II demand; Gas Transmission benefited from rate settlements and Venice Extension .
  • Capital execution/catalysts: ~C$3B of new projects sanctioned in Q3; secured backlog now ~C$35B. Post‑quarter, Enbridge reached FID on Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (adds 150 kbpd Mainline; 2027 in‑service) .
  • Near‑term stock catalysts: December 3 guidance update timing flagged on the call; MLO1 FID announced Nov 14; open season details on MLO2 early in the new year .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Q3 Adj. EBITDA and continued high utilization: “high utilization across our systems resulted in record Q3 EBITDA… we’re well set up to achieve our financial guidance for the 20th consecutive year.” – CEO Greg Ebel .
  • Strong Gas Transmission momentum: +C$108MM y/y Adj. EBITDA on favorable contracting/rate case outcomes, Venice Extension, and JV additions (Matterhorn/DBR) .
  • Growth pipeline advanced: C$3B of projects sanctioned (Southern Illinois Connector; Canyon expansion; USGC storage expansions; AGT Enhancement; Pelican CO2 Hub; Eiger Express), lifting secured backlog to ~C$35B . Quote: “We also sanctioned $3 billion of attractive projects, leveraging our footprint, scale and diversification.” – CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Liquids Gulf Coast/Mid‑Con softness: lower contributions from Flanagan South and Spearhead weighed on the liquids segment . CFO added tight diffs and strong PADD II refining as headwinds expected into Q4 .
  • EPS pressure from financing/D&A: Adjusted EPS fell to C$0.46 (from C$0.55) primarily on higher interest expense and depreciation from acquisitions and new assets .
  • Hedging headwind: higher realized FX hedge losses reduced Eliminations & Other Adj. EBITDA (C$38MM vs C$96MM a year ago) .

Financial Results

All figures C$, unaudited, unless stated; periods are fiscal quarters.

Consolidated quarterly metrics (sequential trend)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Adjusted EBITDA (C$B)5.828 4.644 4.267
Adjusted EPS (C$)1.03 0.65 0.46
GAAP EPS (C$)1.04 1.00 0.30
DCF (C$B)3.777 2.903 2.566
Cash from Ops (C$B)3.052 3.238 2.868

Year-over-year comparison (Q3 only)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Adjusted EBITDA (C$B)4.201 4.267
Adjusted EPS (C$)0.55 0.46
GAAP EPS (C$)0.59 0.30
DCF (C$B)2.596 2.566
Cash from Ops (C$B)2.973 2.868

Segment Adjusted EBITDA (Q3)

Segment (C$MM)Q3 2024Q3 2025
Liquids Pipelines2,343 2,307
Gas Transmission1,154 1,262
Gas Distribution & Storage522 560
Renewable Power Generation86 100
Eliminations & Other96 38
Total Adjusted EBITDA4,201 4,267

Selected KPIs

KPIQ3 2025Notes
Mainline throughput (mmbpd)~3.1 (record Q3) Apportioned; strong demand for Canadian crude
Debt-to-EBITDA (rolling 12M)4.8x Within 4.5–5.0x target
Weighted avg diluted shares (MM)2,181 2,177 in Q3’24

Results vs. Wall Street consensus (S&P Global, USD) – Q3 2025

Metric (USD)ConsensusActualSurprise
Primary EPS$0.366*$0.330*-$0.036*
Revenue$8.51B*$10.51B*+$2.00B*
EBITDA$3.08B*$2.69B*-$0.39B*
Free Cash Flow$0.224B*$0.597B*+$0.373B*

Note: Company emphasizes Adjusted EBITDA (non‑GAAP, C$) and DCF; S&P EBITDA/FCF definitions and USD FX conversion differ from company non‑GAAP metrics.
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025C$19.4–20.0B C$19.4–20.0B Maintained
DCF per shareFY 2025C$5.50–5.90 C$5.50–5.90 Maintained
Multi‑year outlook2023–26Adj. EBITDA +7–9% CAGR; EPS +4–6%; DCF/share ~+3% Same Maintained
Post‑2026 growth2027+~+5% annually (Adj. EBITDA, EPS, DCF/share) Same Maintained
LeverageOngoingTarget 4.5–5.0x 4.8x at Q3; target unchanged Maintained
DividendQuarterlyC$0.9425/share (Sep 1) C$0.9425/share (Dec 1) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025 (May)Q2 2025 (Aug)Q3 2025 (Nov)Trend
Mainline optimization/egressLaunched FSP open season to support MLO1; up to C$2B Mainline capital through 2028 Flanagan South open season oversubscribed; Southern Illinois Connector open season launched MLO1 near sanction; MLO2 enlarged to 250 kbpd using DAPL; post‑quarter MLO1 FID adds 150 kbpd in 2027 Accelerating; larger scope
Gas Transmission growth (LNG, storage)Birch Grove (T‑North) sanctioned; Traverse FID; MXP 10% stake announced Aitken Creek +40 Bcf; Line 31 expansion; Traverse upsized to 2.5 Bcf/d Sanctioned Egan/Moss Bluff +23 Bcf; Canyon expansion; AGT Enhancement; Eiger Express JV Robust, diversified
Utilities/data center demandRate cases filed NC/UT; utility portfolio integration Ohio rate case order; ongoing NC/UT Positive NC/UT settlements; >C$4B pipeline across ~60 DC/power projects Strengthening
Renewables (tech PPAs)Orange Grove in service; Sequoia phase on track Clear Fork 600MW sanctioned (Meta) >1.4 GW solar by 2027; serving Meta/Amazon; opportunistic stance amid policy shifts Healthy pipeline
Regulatory/legalN/A in Q1 PRReaffirmed tariff impact immaterial Line 5: WI reboot 2027; tunnel a few years later; improving US permitting tone Gradual progress

Management Commentary

  • “During the quarter, high utilization across our systems resulted in record Q3 EBITDA, and we’re well set up to achieve our financial guidance for the 20th consecutive year.” – Greg Ebel, CEO .
  • “We sanctioned $2 billion of investment across our [Gas Transmission] footprint to support growing natural gas, power, and LNG demand.” – CEO (press release highlights) .
  • “Mainline volumes had another strong quarter, delivering a record 3.1 million barrels per day on average for Q3.” – CEO (call) .
  • “We remain confident we will achieve full year EBITDA in the upper half of our guidance range of $19.4 billion to $20 billion… DCF per share at the midpoint of our $5.50 to $5.90 per share guidance range.” – CFO .
  • “Year‑to‑date, Enbridge has added approximately $7 billion to its secured project backlog… we now have $35 billion of sanctioned growth capital entering service through 2030.” – CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Utilities/data centers: Management sees accelerating DC/power gen opportunities across OH/UT/ON (up to ~8 GW in early‑stage across OH/UT; >6 GW mid‑stage), with multiple major capex projects advancing (e.g., T15 in NC) .
  • Mainline Optimization: MLO1 on track (150 kbpd, 2027); MLO2 expanded (250 kbpd, 2028) leveraging DAPL; further brownfield phases (MLO3/4) being scoped for upside .
  • Liquids Gulf Coast/Mid‑Con softness: Viewed as temporary; PADD II ran hard to refill products; long‑term full‑path demand intact (oversubscribed open seasons) .
  • Storage contracting: Initial Egan cavern ~50% contracted; typical 2–5 year terms with portfolio optimization; strong pricing backdrop given LNG/power demand .
  • Line 5: Permitting momentum improving; Wisconsin “Reboot” targeted for 2027; Michigan tunnel a few years later .

Estimates Context

  • Versus S&P Global consensus (USD), ENB missed on quarterly Primary EPS but beat on revenue and FCF; S&P EBITDA metric was below consensus and not directly comparable to company Adjusted EBITDA (non‑GAAP, C$). Currency, methodology (GAAP vs non‑GAAP), and definition differences drive variances. Management continues to anchor on achieving FY Adjusted EBITDA near the upper half of the range and DCF/share around the midpoint .
  • Where estimates may adjust: Liquids segment near‑term assumptions likely reflect continued tight diffs/strong PADD II demand; Gas Transmission outlook benefits from rate cases and recent project in‑service (Venice Extension). FY guide reaffirmation limits model drift for 2025 aggregates .
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core resiliency intact: Record Q3 Adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed FY guide despite liquids mix headwinds; leverage at 4.8x within target band .
  • Visible multi‑year growth: Secured backlog ~C$35B, with brownfield egress projects (MLO1 FID; MLO2 in development) and gas storage/LNG adjacency underpinning ~5% post‑2026 growth across EBITDA, EPS, and DCF/share .
  • Utilities optionality: Constructive rate outcomes (NC/UT) and accelerating data center/power demand support incremental regulated investment at attractive returns .
  • Watch near‑term liquids mix: Gulf Coast/Mid‑Con contributions sensitive to diffs/refinery runs; management frames softness as temporary with full‑path demand strong .
  • Upcoming catalysts: December guidance update; MLO2 open season early in the new year; continued project sanctions across GTM/storage .
  • Dividend visibility: Quarterly dividend maintained at C$0.9425; 30‑year dividend growth record sustained within 60–70% DCF payout target .

Appendix – Notable Q3‑period Press Releases

  • Q3 results PR (Nov 7): Detailed financials, reaffirmed guidance, project sanctions .
  • Dividend declaration (Nov 5): C$0.9425/share payable Dec 1, 2025 .
  • Post‑quarter: MLO1 FID (Nov 14): Adds 150 kbpd Mainline and 100 kbpd FSP capacity; 2027 in‑service .