EI
ENBRIDGE INC (ENB)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 delivered record third‑quarter Adjusted EBITDA of C$4.27B (+1.6% y/y) with DCF at C$2.57B (flat y/y), while Adjusted EPS declined to C$0.46 (from C$0.55) on higher interest and D&A; 2025 guidance reaffirmed: Adjusted EBITDA C$19.4–20.0B and DCF/share C$5.50–5.90 .
- Operations were strong: Mainline volumes averaged ~3.1 mmbpd (Q3 record), though Gulf Coast/Mid‑Con liquids contributions were soft on tighter diffs and strong PADD II demand; Gas Transmission benefited from rate settlements and Venice Extension .
- Capital execution/catalysts: ~C$3B of new projects sanctioned in Q3; secured backlog now ~C$35B. Post‑quarter, Enbridge reached FID on Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (adds 150 kbpd Mainline; 2027 in‑service) .
- Near‑term stock catalysts: December 3 guidance update timing flagged on the call; MLO1 FID announced Nov 14; open season details on MLO2 early in the new year .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record Q3 Adj. EBITDA and continued high utilization: “high utilization across our systems resulted in record Q3 EBITDA… we’re well set up to achieve our financial guidance for the 20th consecutive year.” – CEO Greg Ebel .
- Strong Gas Transmission momentum: +C$108MM y/y Adj. EBITDA on favorable contracting/rate case outcomes, Venice Extension, and JV additions (Matterhorn/DBR) .
- Growth pipeline advanced: C$3B of projects sanctioned (Southern Illinois Connector; Canyon expansion; USGC storage expansions; AGT Enhancement; Pelican CO2 Hub; Eiger Express), lifting secured backlog to ~C$35B . Quote: “We also sanctioned $3 billion of attractive projects, leveraging our footprint, scale and diversification.” – CEO .
What Went Wrong
- Liquids Gulf Coast/Mid‑Con softness: lower contributions from Flanagan South and Spearhead weighed on the liquids segment . CFO added tight diffs and strong PADD II refining as headwinds expected into Q4 .
- EPS pressure from financing/D&A: Adjusted EPS fell to C$0.46 (from C$0.55) primarily on higher interest expense and depreciation from acquisitions and new assets .
- Hedging headwind: higher realized FX hedge losses reduced Eliminations & Other Adj. EBITDA (C$38MM vs C$96MM a year ago) .
Financial Results
All figures C$, unaudited, unless stated; periods are fiscal quarters.
Consolidated quarterly metrics (sequential trend)
Year-over-year comparison (Q3 only)
Segment Adjusted EBITDA (Q3)
Selected KPIs
Results vs. Wall Street consensus (S&P Global, USD) – Q3 2025
Note: Company emphasizes Adjusted EBITDA (non‑GAAP, C$) and DCF; S&P EBITDA/FCF definitions and USD FX conversion differ from company non‑GAAP metrics.
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “During the quarter, high utilization across our systems resulted in record Q3 EBITDA, and we’re well set up to achieve our financial guidance for the 20th consecutive year.” – Greg Ebel, CEO .
- “We sanctioned $2 billion of investment across our [Gas Transmission] footprint to support growing natural gas, power, and LNG demand.” – CEO (press release highlights) .
- “Mainline volumes had another strong quarter, delivering a record 3.1 million barrels per day on average for Q3.” – CEO (call) .
- “We remain confident we will achieve full year EBITDA in the upper half of our guidance range of $19.4 billion to $20 billion… DCF per share at the midpoint of our $5.50 to $5.90 per share guidance range.” – CFO .
- “Year‑to‑date, Enbridge has added approximately $7 billion to its secured project backlog… we now have $35 billion of sanctioned growth capital entering service through 2030.” – CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- Utilities/data centers: Management sees accelerating DC/power gen opportunities across OH/UT/ON (up to ~8 GW in early‑stage across OH/UT; >6 GW mid‑stage), with multiple major capex projects advancing (e.g., T15 in NC) .
- Mainline Optimization: MLO1 on track (150 kbpd, 2027); MLO2 expanded (250 kbpd, 2028) leveraging DAPL; further brownfield phases (MLO3/4) being scoped for upside .
- Liquids Gulf Coast/Mid‑Con softness: Viewed as temporary; PADD II ran hard to refill products; long‑term full‑path demand intact (oversubscribed open seasons) .
- Storage contracting: Initial Egan cavern ~50% contracted; typical 2–5 year terms with portfolio optimization; strong pricing backdrop given LNG/power demand .
- Line 5: Permitting momentum improving; Wisconsin “Reboot” targeted for 2027; Michigan tunnel a few years later .
Estimates Context
- Versus S&P Global consensus (USD), ENB missed on quarterly Primary EPS but beat on revenue and FCF; S&P EBITDA metric was below consensus and not directly comparable to company Adjusted EBITDA (non‑GAAP, C$). Currency, methodology (GAAP vs non‑GAAP), and definition differences drive variances. Management continues to anchor on achieving FY Adjusted EBITDA near the upper half of the range and DCF/share around the midpoint .
- Where estimates may adjust: Liquids segment near‑term assumptions likely reflect continued tight diffs/strong PADD II demand; Gas Transmission outlook benefits from rate cases and recent project in‑service (Venice Extension). FY guide reaffirmation limits model drift for 2025 aggregates .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core resiliency intact: Record Q3 Adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed FY guide despite liquids mix headwinds; leverage at 4.8x within target band .
- Visible multi‑year growth: Secured backlog ~C$35B, with brownfield egress projects (MLO1 FID; MLO2 in development) and gas storage/LNG adjacency underpinning ~5% post‑2026 growth across EBITDA, EPS, and DCF/share .
- Utilities optionality: Constructive rate outcomes (NC/UT) and accelerating data center/power demand support incremental regulated investment at attractive returns .
- Watch near‑term liquids mix: Gulf Coast/Mid‑Con contributions sensitive to diffs/refinery runs; management frames softness as temporary with full‑path demand strong .
- Upcoming catalysts: December guidance update; MLO2 open season early in the new year; continued project sanctions across GTM/storage .
- Dividend visibility: Quarterly dividend maintained at C$0.9425; 30‑year dividend growth record sustained within 60–70% DCF payout target .
Appendix – Notable Q3‑period Press Releases
- Q3 results PR (Nov 7): Detailed financials, reaffirmed guidance, project sanctions .
- Dividend declaration (Nov 5): C$0.9425/share payable Dec 1, 2025 .
- Post‑quarter: MLO1 FID (Nov 14): Adds 150 kbpd Mainline and 100 kbpd FSP capacity; 2027 in‑service .